Featherweight
3 Rounds
Billy Quarantillo won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, September 12, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupBilly Quarantillo: Submission grapplervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(73.4%)
Actual result: Billy Quarantillo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Billy Quarantillo is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Kyle Nelson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Billy Quarantillo
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Nelson
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
37
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Billy QuarantilloL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22L
KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23W
vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Billy QuarantilloMetricKyle Nelson
7.44
Strikes / min
3.60
5.83
Strikes absorbed / min
4.58
42%
Strike defense
53%
1.47
TDs / 15 min
1.18
61%
Takedown defense
66%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.61Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Billy QuarantilloKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+47.6-47.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-252.0252.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Billy Quarantillo
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11