Welterweight
3 Rounds
Trey Waters won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 11, 2024·St. Louis, Missouri, USA, USA
Style matchupBilly Ray Goff: Pressure fightervsTrey Waters: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Billy Ray Goff wins(61.8%)
Actual result: Trey Waters wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Trey Waters has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Billy Ray Goff (52.9%).
- Trey Waters has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Billy Ray Goff
Red Corner
VS
Trey Waters
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-166
(62%)
27
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'5"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Billy Ray Goff
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Yusaku Kinoshita · Aug 23L
SUBvs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 25Trey Waters
oldest →latest
W
vs Josh Quinlan · Apr 23L
KOvs Sam Patterson · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Billy Ray GoffMetricTrey Waters
7.51
Strikes / min
6.39
5.02
Strikes absorbed / min
5.83
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
0.40
66%
Takedown defense
85%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.49Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Billy Ray GoffTrey Waters
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Billy Ray Goff(3 fights)Trey Waters(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.91.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Billy Ray Goff
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3
Trey Waters
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3