Lightweight
3 Rounds
Clay Guida won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 11, 2019·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupBJ Penn: Well-roundedvsClay Guida: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: BJ Penn wins(61.0%)
Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
BJ Penn
Red Corner
VS
Clay Guida
Blue Corner
+525
(16%)
Vegas Odds
-750
(88%)
47
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Rory MacDonald · Dec 12L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17L
SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
BJ PennMetricClay Guida
2.76
Strikes / min
2.63
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
56%
Strike defense
61%
1.19
TDs / 15 min
3.10
74%
Takedown defense
66%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
BJ PennClay Guida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
BJ Penn(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-123.0123.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-203.0203.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
BJ Penn
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27