Welterweight
3 Rounds
Nick Diaz won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 29, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupBJ Penn: Well-roundedvsNick Diaz: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Nick Diaz wins(65.4%)
Actual result: Nick Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Nick Diaz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nick Diaz (53.5%).
- Nick Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
BJ Penn
Red Corner
VS
Nick Diaz
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17L
SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18L
vs Clay Guida · May 19Nick DiazL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Carlos Condit · Feb 12L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 13L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Sep 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
BJ PennMetricNick Diaz
2.76
Strikes / min
5.71
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
3.84
56%
Strike defense
59%
1.19
TDs / 15 min
1.28
74%
Takedown defense
60%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap+1.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
BJ PennNick Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
BJ Penn(10 fights)Nick Diaz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.812.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.447.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
BJ Penn
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Nick Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4