Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 8, 2012·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupBJ Penn: Well-roundedvsRory MacDonald: Elusive striker
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(62.0%)
Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- BJ Penn is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
BJ Penn
Red Corner
VS
Rory MacDonald
Blue Corner
+275
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-335
(77%)
47
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17L
SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18L
vs Clay Guida · May 19Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
BJ PennMetricRory MacDonald
2.76
Strikes / min
3.75
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
56%
Strike defense
62%
1.19
TDs / 15 min
1.77
74%
Takedown defense
88%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
BJ PennRory MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
BJ Penn(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-72.172.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+175.0-175.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
BJ Penn
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Rory MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12