Lightweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Hall won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 29, 2018·Los Angeles, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Ryan Hall wins(60.3%)
Actual result: Ryan Hall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- BJ Penn has 74pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Ryan Hall (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
BJ Penn
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Hall
Blue Corner
+365
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-460
(82%)
47
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Rory MacDonald · Dec 12L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17L
vs Clay Guida · May 19Ryan Hall
oldest →latest
W
vs Artem Lobov · Dec 15W
vs Gray Maynard · Dec 16W
vs Darren Elkins · Jul 19L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jul 21W
vs Darrick Minner · Dec 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
BJ PennMetricRyan Hall
2.76
Strikes / min
2.38
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
1.33
56%
Strike defense
65%
1.19
TDs / 15 min
0.22
74%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
2.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap+1.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
BJ PennRyan Hall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
BJ Penn(10 fights)Ryan Hall(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-112.3112.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-204.0204.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.91.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
BJ Penn
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Ryan Hall
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6