Middleweight
3 Rounds
Bo Nickal won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 16, 2024·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupBo Nickal: WrestlervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Bo Nickal wins(62.3%)
Actual result: Bo Nickal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Bo Nickal has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Bo Nickal has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bo Nickal (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Bo Nickal
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
-1350
(93%)
Vegas Odds
+800
(11%)
30
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bo Nickal
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jamie Pickett · Mar 23W
KOvs Val Woodburn · Jul 23W
SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 24L
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · May 25W
KOvs Rodolfo Vieira · Nov 25Paul CraigL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bo NickalMetricPaul Craig
3.35
Strikes / min
2.50
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
59%
Strike defense
43%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.43
100%
Takedown defense
35%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.28Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bo NickalPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bo Nickal(6 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+29.5-29.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
Bo Nickal
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20