Featherweight
3 Rounds
Bogdan Grad won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 1, 2025·Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia
Style matchupBogdan Grad: WrestlervsLucas Alexander: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Bogdan Grad wins(74.0%)
Actual result: Bogdan Grad wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bogdan Grad is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Lucas Alexander has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Bogdan Grad has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Bogdan Grad
Red Corner
VS
Lucas Alexander
Blue Corner
+108
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-126
(56%)
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bogdan GradL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 25L
KOvs Luke Riley · Nov 25Lucas Alexander
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Oct 22W
vs Steven Peterson · Mar 23L
KOvs Jeka Saragih · Nov 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bogdan GradMetricLucas Alexander
4.06
Strikes / min
4.69
5.06
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
49%
Strike defense
56%
4.22
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
60%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.00Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap+1.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bogdan GradLucas Alexander
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bogdan Grad(3 fights)Lucas Alexander(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.7-16.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
Bogdan Grad
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3
Lucas Alexander
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4