Featherweight
3 Rounds
Luke Riley won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 22, 2025·Doha, Qatar, Qatar
Style matchupBogdan Grad: WrestlervsLuke Riley: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Bogdan Grad wins(65.9%)
Actual result: Luke Riley wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Luke Riley is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Bogdan Grad has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Luke Riley has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Bogdan Grad has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Bogdan Grad
Red Corner
VS
Luke Riley
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
30
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bogdan Grad
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Lucas Alexander · Feb 25L
vs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 25Luke Riley
oldest →latest
W
vs Michael Aswell Jr. · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bogdan GradMetricLuke Riley
4.06
Strikes / min
5.56
5.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
49%
Strike defense
64%
4.22
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
37%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.00Δ 3.24 — meaningful gap+2.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bogdan GradLuke Riley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bogdan Grad(3 fights)Luke Riley(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Bogdan Grad
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3
Luke Riley
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2