Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Duncan won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 28, 2024·Paris, Ile-de-France, France, France
Style matchupBolaji Oki: Pressure fightervsChris Duncan: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Bolaji Oki wins(52.1%)
Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Duncan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Chris Duncan threatens submissions; Bolaji Oki has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Bolaji Oki has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Bolaji Oki has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Bolaji Oki
Red Corner
VS
Chris Duncan
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
30
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bolaji OkiL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Timmy Cuamba · Feb 24W
vs Michael Aswell Jr. · May 25L
KOvs Mason Jones · Sep 25L
KOvs Manoel Sousa · Mar 26Chris DuncanW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Yanal Ashmouz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bolaji OkiMetricChris Duncan
6.42
Strikes / min
4.83
5.12
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
61%
Strike defense
50%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
2.92
75%
Takedown defense
55%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.30Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bolaji OkiChris Duncan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bolaji Oki(5 fights)Chris Duncan(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Bolaji Oki
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5
Chris Duncan
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8