Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bekzat Almakhan won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 10, 2025·Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Brad Katona wins(82.1%)
Actual result: Bekzat Almakhan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brad Katona has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brad Katona has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Bekzat Almakhan has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Brad Katona
Red Corner
VS
Bekzat Almakhan
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-142
(59%)
34
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
162.56 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brad Katona
oldest →latest
L
vs Hunter Azure · Sep 19W
vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23L
vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24W
vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24L
vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24Bekzat AlmakhanL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 24L
vs Aleksandre Topuria · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brad KatonaMetricBekzat Almakhan
4.81
Strikes / min
1.61
4.75
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
50%
Strike defense
36%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
41%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap-2.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brad KatonaBekzat Almakhan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brad Katona(9 fights)Bekzat Almakhan(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+7.3-7.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-231.0231.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Brad Katona
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights9
Bekzat Almakhan
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights3