Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Brad Katona won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 8, 2024·Louisville, Kentucky, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Brad Katona wins(81.3%)
Actual result: Brad Katona wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brad Katona enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brad Katona has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brad Katona has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jesse Butler has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Brad Katona
Red Corner
VS
Jesse Butler
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'10"
162.56 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brad KatonaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Hunter Azure · Sep 19W
vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23L
vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24L
vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24L
KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25Jesse Butler
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jim Miller · Jun 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brad KatonaMetricJesse Butler
4.81
Strikes / min
2.02
4.75
Strikes absorbed / min
4.62
50%
Strike defense
39%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap-2.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brad KatonaJesse Butler
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brad Katona(9 fights)Jesse Butler(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+10.8-10.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-231.0231.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Brad Katona
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights9
Jesse Butler
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2