Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Brad Katona won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 8, 2018·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupBrad Katona: Pressure fightervsMatthew Lopez: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Brad Katona wins(55.7%)
Actual result: Brad Katona wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Lopez (53.5%).
- Matthew Lopez has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Brad Katona
Red Corner
VS
Matthew Lopez
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'7"
162.56 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brad KatonaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23L
vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24W
vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24L
vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24L
KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25Matthew LopezL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16W
vs Mitch Gagnon · Dec 16W
KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17L
KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Nov 17L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brad KatonaMetricMatthew Lopez
4.81
Strikes / min
3.13
4.75
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
50%
Strike defense
55%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
3.32
61%
Takedown defense
71%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brad KatonaMatthew Lopez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brad Katona(9 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+20.9-20.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-83.083.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Brad Katona
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights9
Matthew Lopez
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6