Lightweight
3 Rounds
Brad Riddell won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 22, 2020·Auckland, New Zealand, New Zealand
Style matchupBrad Riddell: Pressure fightervsMagomed Mustafaev: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Brad Riddell wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Brad Riddell wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brad Riddell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brad Riddell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brad Riddell has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Brad Riddell
Red Corner
VS
Magomed Mustafaev
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
34
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brad RiddellL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20W
vs Drew Dober · Jun 21L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Dec 21L
SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22Magomed Mustafaev
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 15W
KOvs Joe Proctor · Dec 15L
SUBvs Kevin Lee · Nov 16W
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Apr 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brad RiddellMetricMagomed Mustafaev
4.71
Strikes / min
2.59
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
2.68
53%
Strike defense
41%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
3.31
63%
Takedown defense
23%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.18Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brad RiddellMagomed Mustafaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brad Riddell(7 fights)Magomed Mustafaev(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-19.919.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-168.0168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Brad Riddell
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7
Magomed Mustafaev
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5