Flyweight
5 Rounds
Brandon Moreno won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, March 29, 2025·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupBrandon Moreno: Well-roundedvsSteve Erceg: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Brandon Moreno wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Brandon Moreno wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Brandon Moreno
Red Corner
VS
Steve Erceg
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
32
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brandon MorenoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 23L
vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24W
vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25L
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26Steve Erceg
oldest →latest
W
vs Alessandro Costa · Nov 23W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Mar 24L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · May 24L
KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24W
vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brandon MorenoMetricSteve Erceg
3.84
Strikes / min
4.64
3.64
Strikes absorbed / min
4.07
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.36
TDs / 15 min
1.13
65%
Takedown defense
67%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.20evenly matched on net striking+0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brandon MorenoSteve Erceg
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brandon Moreno(10 fights)Steve Erceg(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+65.3-65.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Brandon Moreno
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18
Steve Erceg
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights7