Flyweight
3 Rounds
Brandon Royval won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 15, 2023·Kansas City, Missouri, USA, USA
Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Brandon Royval wins(54.3%)
Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matheus Nicolau has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Brandon Royval
Red Corner
VS
Matheus Nicolau
Blue Corner
+164
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-196
(66%)
33
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brandon RoyvalL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 23W
vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24W
vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24L
vs Joshua Van · Jun 25L
KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25Matheus NicolauL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brandon RoyvalMetricMatheus Nicolau
5.54
Strikes / min
3.31
4.25
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
43%
Strike defense
65%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
1.22
45%
Takedown defense
90%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.29evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brandon RoyvalMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brandon Royval(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-52.152.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+210.0-210.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Brandon Royval
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights12
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11