Flyweight
3 Rounds
Brandon Royval won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 7, 2022·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Brandon Royval wins(65.4%)
Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brandon Royval threatens submissions; Matt Schnell has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Matt Schnell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Brandon Royval
Red Corner
VS
Matt Schnell
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
33
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brandon RoyvalL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 23W
vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24W
vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24L
vs Joshua Van · Jun 25L
KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25Matt Schnell
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24W
vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brandon RoyvalMetricMatt Schnell
5.54
Strikes / min
4.07
4.25
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
43%
Strike defense
55%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
0.60
45%
Takedown defense
43%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.29Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brandon RoyvalMatt Schnell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brandon Royval(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.40.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-245.0245.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Brandon Royval
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights12
Matt Schnell
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights16