Middleweight
5 Rounds
Brendan Allen won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(62.3%)
Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Brendan Allen has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Brendan Allen
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
-470
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
30
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brendan AllenW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24L
vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25W
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25W
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25Paul CraigL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brendan AllenMetricPaul Craig
3.59
Strikes / min
2.50
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
47%
Strike defense
43%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
1.43
56%
Takedown defense
35%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brendan AllenPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brendan Allen(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+82.8-82.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Brendan Allen
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20