Middleweight
3 Rounds
Brendan Allen won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 29, 2020·Norfolk, Virginia, USA, USA
Style matchupBrendan Allen: Submission grapplervsTom Breese: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(56.2%)
Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Breese is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Brendan Allen threatens submissions; Tom Breese has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Tom Breese has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Breese (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Brendan Allen
Red Corner
VS
Tom Breese
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
30
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brendan AllenW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24L
vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25W
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25W
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25Tom Breese
oldest →latest
W
vs Keita Nakamura · Feb 16L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16W
KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18W
KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20L
SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brendan AllenMetricTom Breese
3.59
Strikes / min
3.34
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
47%
Strike defense
60%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
0.00
56%
Takedown defense
70%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brendan AllenTom Breese
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brendan Allen(10 fights)Tom Breese(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-34.834.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-509.0509.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+1.7-1.7
Brendan Allen
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18
Tom Breese
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8