Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Jouban has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alan Jouban has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).
- Alan Jouban has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brendan O'Reilly
oldest →L
DECvs Zhang Lipeng · Aug 14L
vs Dong Hyun Ma · Dec 16 Alan Jouban
oldest →L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17L
KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18L
vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19W
vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brendan O'ReillyMetricAlan Jouban
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.87Δ 2.77 — meaningful gap+1.90
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brendan O'ReillyAlan Jouban
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brendan O'Reilly(4 fights)Alan Jouban(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -134.5|Blue +134.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brendan O'ReillyTargetAlan Jouban
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alan Jouban edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control0:46
Knockdowns0
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
