Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rick Story won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 16, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Brian Ebersole wins(62.7%)
Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Tale of the Tape
Brian Ebersole
Red Corner
VS
Rick Story
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
45
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian Ebersole
oldest →latest
W
vs Claude Patrick · Dec 11W
vs TJ Waldburger · Jun 12L
vs James Head · Jul 12W
vs John Howard · Sep 14L
KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Jun 15Rick Story
oldest →latest
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian EbersoleMetricRick Story
2.32
Strikes / min
3.80
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
56%
Strike defense
62%
1.70
TDs / 15 min
2.53
61%
Takedown defense
63%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+1.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brian EbersoleRick Story
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ebersole(8 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.6-28.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+308.0-308.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Brian Ebersole
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8
Rick Story
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16