Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Mario Bautista won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, June 25, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupBrian Kelleher: Well-roundedvsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Brian Kelleher wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Brian Kelleher
Red Corner
VS
Mario Bautista
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
39
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'6"
Height
5'9"
167.64 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian KelleherL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21W
vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22L
SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24Mario Bautista
oldest →latest
W
vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24W
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24W
vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian KelleherMetricMario Bautista
3.31
Strikes / min
5.30
4.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.98
54%
Strike defense
54%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
1.91
60%
Takedown defense
55%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.28Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap+1.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brian KelleherMario Bautista
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.5-14.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Brian Kelleher
StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17
Mario Bautista
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14