Featherweight
3 Rounds
Brian Kelleher won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, September 5, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Brian Kelleher wins(79.7%)
Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Brian Kelleher has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brian Kelleher has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
- Ray Rodriguez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Brian Kelleher
Red Corner
VS
Ray Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+315
(24%)
39
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian KelleherL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22L
SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24Ray Rodriguez
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Mar 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian KelleherMetricRay Rodriguez
3.31
Strikes / min
0.90
4.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.89
54%
Strike defense
40%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
1.42
60%
Takedown defense
44%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.28Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-2.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brian KelleherRay Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Ray Rodriguez(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+22.4-22.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.948.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Brian Kelleher
StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17
Ray Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights2