Featherweight
3 Rounds
Umar Nurmagomedov won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupBrian Kelleher: Well-roundedvsUmar Nurmagomedov: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(50.7%)
Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Umar Nurmagomedov has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Brian Kelleher
Red Corner
VS
Umar Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
+650
(13%)
Vegas Odds
-1000
(91%)
39
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian KelleherL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21W
vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25W
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian KelleherMetricUmar Nurmagomedov
3.31
Strikes / min
3.86
4.59
Strikes absorbed / min
1.86
54%
Strike defense
61%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
4.03
60%
Takedown defense
79%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.28Δ 3.28 — meaningful gap+2.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brian KelleherUmar Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Kelleher(10 fights)Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.1-34.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-360.0360.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Brian Kelleher
StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17
Umar Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9