Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Aljamain Sterling won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, August 23, 2025·Shanghai, Hebei, China, China
Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aljamain Sterling has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Brian Ortega
Red Corner
VS
Aljamain Sterling
Blue Corner
+380
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-490
(83%)
35
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian Ortega
oldest →latest
W
vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24Aljamain Sterling
oldest →latest
W
KOvs TJ Dillashaw · Oct 22W
vs Henry Cejudo · May 23L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian OrtegaMetricAljamain Sterling
3.84
Strikes / min
4.26
6.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.15
49%
Strike defense
59%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
2.54
54%
Takedown defense
44%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.54Δ 4.65 — meaningful gap+2.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brian OrtegaAljamain Sterling
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-82.082.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Brian Ortega
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13
Aljamain Sterling
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights22