Featherweight
3 Rounds
Brian Ortega won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 4, 2016·Los Angeles, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Brian Ortega wins(68.9%)
Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brian Ortega threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
- Clay Guida has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Brian Ortega
Red Corner
VS
Clay Guida
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
35
Age
44
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian OrtegaMetricClay Guida
3.84
Strikes / min
2.63
6.38
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
49%
Strike defense
61%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
3.10
54%
Takedown defense
66%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.54Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brian OrtegaClay Guida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+6.8-6.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Brian Ortega
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13
Clay Guida
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27