Featherweight
5 Rounds
Yair Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 16, 2022·Elmont, New York, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Brian Ortega wins(52.7%)
Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Brian Ortega
Red Corner
VS
Yair Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-195
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
35
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25Yair Rodriguez
oldest →latest
L
vs Max Holloway · Nov 21W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24W
vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian OrtegaMetricYair Rodriguez
3.84
Strikes / min
4.65
6.38
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
49%
Strike defense
52%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
0.71
54%
Takedown defense
59%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.54Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap+0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brian OrtegaYair Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.9-5.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Brian Ortega
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13
Yair Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15