Heavyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Cain Velasquez won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 23, 2010·Anaheim, California, USA, USA
Style matchupBrock Lesnar: WrestlervsCain Velasquez: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Brock Lesnar wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Cain Velasquez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Brock Lesnar has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Brock Lesnar threatens submissions; Cain Velasquez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Cain Velasquez has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Brock Lesnar has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Brock Lesnar
Red Corner
VS
Cain Velasquez
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
48
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
205.74 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brock Lesnar
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Shane Carwin · Jul 10L
KOvs Alistair Overeem · Dec 11Cain Velasquez
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15W
KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brock LesnarMetricCain Velasquez
3.53
Strikes / min
6.37
2.11
Strikes absorbed / min
2.33
50%
Strike defense
57%
3.90
TDs / 15 min
5.13
60%
Takedown defense
85%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 2.62 — meaningful gap+4.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brock LesnarCain Velasquez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brock Lesnar(3 fights)Cain Velasquez(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.647.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Brock Lesnar
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights3
Cain Velasquez
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9