Lightweight
3 Rounds
Brok Weaver won · DQ R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 15, 2020·Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA, USA
Style matchupBrok Weaver: Pressure fightervsKazula Vargas: Elusive striker
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Brok Weaver wins(55.9%)
Actual result: Brok Weaver wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kazula Vargas has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brok Weaver has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Brok Weaver
Red Corner
VS
Kazula Vargas
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
34
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brok WeaverL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · May 20L
SUBvs Jalin Turner · Sep 20Kazula Vargas
oldest →latest
L
vs Alex Da Silva · Aug 19W
vs Rong Zhu · Apr 21L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Mar 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brok WeaverMetricKazula Vargas
4.78
Strikes / min
3.65
4.35
Strikes absorbed / min
1.77
46%
Strike defense
57%
0.41
TDs / 15 min
0.40
66%
Takedown defense
30%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+1.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brok WeaverKazula Vargas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brok Weaver(3 fights)Kazula Vargas(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.6-19.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
Brok Weaver
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3
Kazula Vargas
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4