Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Colby Covington has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Colby Covington has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24 Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan BarberenaMetricColby Covington
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.76evenly matched on net striking+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Bryan BarberenaColby Covington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bryan BarberenaTargetColby Covington
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
6Takedowns
3:25Control
Round 2Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
36Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:59Control
Round 3Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:41Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
