Welterweight
3 Rounds
Colby Covington won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 17, 2016·Sacramento, California, USA, USA
Style matchupBryan Barberena: Pressure fightervsColby Covington: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(65.9%)
Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Colby Covington has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Colby Covington has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Bryan Barberena
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
+300
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-360
(78%)
37
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan BarberenaMetricColby Covington
5.35
Strikes / min
3.81
4.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
44%
Strike defense
54%
0.13
TDs / 15 min
3.64
50%
Takedown defense
68%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76evenly matched on net striking+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bryan BarberenaColby Covington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-26.526.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.2-2.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19
Colby Covington
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17