Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jason Witt won · M-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 31, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupBryan Barberena: Pressure fightervsJason Witt: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(68.6%)
Actual result: Jason Witt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jason Witt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jason Witt threatens submissions; Bryan Barberena has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Jason Witt has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Bryan Barberena
Red Corner
VS
Jason Witt
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
37
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24Jason WittL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20W
SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20L
KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 21L
KOvs Phil Rowe · Feb 22L
KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan BarberenaMetricJason Witt
5.35
Strikes / min
2.15
4.59
Strikes absorbed / min
2.54
44%
Strike defense
52%
0.13
TDs / 15 min
6.90
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bryan BarberenaJason Witt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Jason Witt(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+41.7-41.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+182.0-182.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.8-2.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19
Jason Witt
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6