Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 3, 2022·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(60.8%)
Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Dos Anjos has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Bryan Barberena
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Dos Anjos
Blue Corner
+340
(23%)
Vegas Odds
-425
(81%)
37
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan BarberenaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Matt Brown · Mar 22W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24Rafael Dos AnjosL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Renato Moicano · Mar 22L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan BarberenaMetricRafael Dos Anjos
5.35
Strikes / min
3.48
4.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
44%
Strike defense
60%
0.13
TDs / 15 min
1.95
50%
Takedown defense
54%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76evenly matched on net striking+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bryan BarberenaRafael Dos Anjos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-51.751.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32