Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Caraway has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18 Dustin NeaceNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan CarawayMetricDustin Neace
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.08evenly matched on net striking-0.58
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Caraway(10 fights)Dustin Neace(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -121.6|Blue +121.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bryan CarawayTargetDustin Neace
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Bryan Caraway edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control2:22
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control0:42
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:31Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
