Featherweight
3 Rounds
Bryan Caraway won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 3, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Bryan Caraway wins(63.2%)
Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Caraway has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Bryan Caraway
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Neace
Blue Corner
-405
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18Dustin NeaceNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan CarawayMetricDustin Neace
2.53
Strikes / min
2.08
3.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.66
54%
Strike defense
56%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
0.00
80%
Takedown defense
0%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.08evenly matched on net striking-0.58
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Caraway(10 fights)Dustin Neace(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Bryan Caraway
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10
Dustin Neace
Stance—
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights1