Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bryan Caraway won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 21, 2012·Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Style matchupBryan Caraway: WrestlervsMitch Gagnon: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Bryan Caraway wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Bryan Caraway threatens submissions; Mitch Gagnon has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Bryan Caraway has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Bryan Caraway
Red Corner
VS
Mitch Gagnon
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'5"
172.72 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18Mitch GagnonL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16L
vs Cole Smith · May 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan CarawayMetricMitch Gagnon
2.53
Strikes / min
2.76
3.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.21
54%
Strike defense
61%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
1.16
80%
Takedown defense
65%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.08Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bryan CarawayMitch Gagnon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Caraway(10 fights)Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.0-16.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Bryan Caraway
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10
Mitch Gagnon
StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8