Featherweight
3 Rounds
Bryce Mitchell won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 9, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(81.2%)
Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Charles Rosa threatens submissions; Bryce Mitchell has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Bryce Mitchell has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Bryce Mitchell
Red Corner
VS
Charles Rosa
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
31
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryce Mitchell
oldest →latest
W
vs Dan Ige · Sep 23L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23W
KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24L
SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25W
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25Charles RosaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21W
vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs TJ Brown · Jan 22L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryce MitchellMetricCharles Rosa
2.27
Strikes / min
3.08
1.60
Strikes absorbed / min
3.86
58%
Strike defense
47%
3.24
TDs / 15 min
1.67
33%
Takedown defense
38%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-0.78
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bryce MitchellCharles Rosa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+41.3-41.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-50.050.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Bryce Mitchell
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12
Charles Rosa
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13