Featherweight
3 Rounds
Ilia Topuria won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 10, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsIlia Topuria: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(77.2%)
Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ilia Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Ilia Topuria has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Bryce Mitchell
Red Corner
VS
Ilia Topuria
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
31
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryce Mitchell
oldest →latest
W
vs Dan Ige · Sep 23L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23W
KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24L
SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25W
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25Ilia TopuriaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Mar 22W
vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryce MitchellMetricIlia Topuria
2.27
Strikes / min
4.81
1.60
Strikes absorbed / min
3.83
58%
Strike defense
64%
3.24
TDs / 15 min
1.96
33%
Takedown defense
93%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bryce MitchellIlia Topuria
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Ilia Topuria(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.5-26.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Bryce Mitchell
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12
Ilia Topuria
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9