Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bryce Mitchell won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 26, 2025·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupBryce Mitchell: WrestlervsSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(79.7%)
Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Bryce Mitchell has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Said Nurmagomedov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Bryce Mitchell
Red Corner
VS
Said Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
-144
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+124
(45%)
31
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryce Mitchell
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Ilia Topuria · Dec 22W
vs Dan Ige · Sep 23L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23W
KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24L
SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25Said Nurmagomedov
oldest →latest
W
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jul 22W
SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22L
vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23W
SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryce MitchellMetricSaid Nurmagomedov
2.27
Strikes / min
3.08
1.60
Strikes absorbed / min
2.05
58%
Strike defense
55%
3.24
TDs / 15 min
0.86
33%
Takedown defense
63%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67evenly matched on net striking+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bryce MitchellSaid Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+11.4-11.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Bryce Mitchell
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12
Said Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11