Heavyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Fabricio Werdum won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 13, 2015·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupCain Velasquez: WrestlervsFabricio Werdum: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Cain Velasquez wins(56.2%)
Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Cain Velasquez has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Cain Velasquez
Red Corner
VS
Fabricio Werdum
Blue Corner
-460
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
43
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cain Velasquez
oldest →latest
W
vs Junior Dos Santos · Dec 12W
KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13W
KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19Fabricio Werdum
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cain VelasquezMetricFabricio Werdum
6.37
Strikes / min
3.59
2.33
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
57%
Strike defense
55%
5.13
TDs / 15 min
1.75
85%
Takedown defense
31%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.04Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Cain VelasquezFabricio Werdum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cain Velasquez(9 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-11.111.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+392.0-392.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Cain Velasquez
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9
Fabricio Werdum
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14