Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Brendson Ribeiro won · S-DEC R3
CM
BR
Caio MachadovsBrendson Ribeiro
UFC Event · Saturday, November 2, 2024Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Caio Machado wins(58.4%)
Actual result: Brendson Ribeiro wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Caio Machado has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Caio Machado has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Caio Machado (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Caio Machado
Red Corner
VS
Brendson Ribeiro
Blue Corner
-192
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
31
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
205.74 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Caio MachadoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mick Parkin · Nov 23L
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Apr 24Brendson RibeiroL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Feb 24L
vs Magomed Gadzhiyasulov · Jun 24W
SUBvs Diyar Nurgozhay · Mar 25L
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Jun 25L
KOvs Oumar Sy · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Caio MachadoMetricBrendson Ribeiro
5.82
Strikes / min
3.04
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
63%
Strike defense
53%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.85
82%
Takedown defense
21%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.95Δ 3.82 — meaningful gap-0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Caio MachadoBrendson Ribeiro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Caio Machado(3 fights)Brendson Ribeiro(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.4-5.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Caio Machado
StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights3
Brendson Ribeiro
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights7