Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Carla Esparza won · M-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 21, 2019·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsAlexa Grasso: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(57.2%)
Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Carla Esparza
Red Corner
VS
Alexa Grasso
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
38
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'5"
160.02 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24Alexa Grasso
oldest →latest
W
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22W
SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24L
vs Natalia Silva · May 25W
KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carla EsparzaMetricAlexa Grasso
2.19
Strikes / min
4.11
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.71
54%
Strike defense
58%
3.28
TDs / 15 min
0.40
47%
Takedown defense
54%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.68Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carla EsparzaAlexa Grasso
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Alexa Grasso(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.912.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15
Alexa Grasso
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14