Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 14, 2015·Dallas, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsJoanna Jedrzejczyk: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Carla Esparza
Red Corner
VS
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'6"
160.02 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18W
vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19L
vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20L
KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carla EsparzaMetricJoanna Jedrzejczyk
2.19
Strikes / min
6.28
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
54%
Strike defense
62%
3.28
TDs / 15 min
0.27
47%
Takedown defense
80%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.68Δ 3.71 — meaningful gap+3.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carla EsparzaJoanna Jedrzejczyk
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.016.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+1.0-1.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15