Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Carla Esparza won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 25, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsMarina Rodriguez: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Carla Esparza
Red Corner
VS
Marina Rodriguez
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-182
(65%)
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'6"
160.02 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Michelle Waterson · May 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24Marina RodriguezL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23W
KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23L
vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24L
KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carla EsparzaMetricMarina Rodriguez
2.19
Strikes / min
4.51
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
54%
Strike defense
55%
3.28
TDs / 15 min
0.27
47%
Takedown defense
61%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.68Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carla EsparzaMarina Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+7.0-7.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-273.0273.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15
Marina Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights13