Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Carla Esparza won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 9, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Carla Esparza
Red Corner
VS
Michelle Waterson
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
38
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'3"
160.02 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24Michelle Waterson
oldest →latest
W
vs Felice Herrig · Oct 18W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carla EsparzaMetricMichelle Waterson
2.19
Strikes / min
—
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
—
54%
Strike defense
—
3.28
TDs / 15 min
—
47%
Takedown defense
—
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
—
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carla EsparzaMichelle Waterson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.314.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15
Michelle Waterson
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3