Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Tecia Pennington won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 5, 2024·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsTecia Pennington: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Tecia Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tecia Pennington has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Carla Esparza
Red Corner
VS
Tecia Pennington
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'1"
160.02 cm
Reach
152.4 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carla Esparza
oldest →latest
W
vs Michelle Waterson · May 20W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22Tecia Pennington
oldest →latest
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · May 24W
vs Luana Pinheiro · May 25L
vs Denise Gomes · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carla EsparzaMetricTecia Pennington
2.19
Strikes / min
4.73
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.48
54%
Strike defense
61%
3.28
TDs / 15 min
0.56
47%
Takedown defense
62%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.68Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carla EsparzaTecia Pennington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Tecia Pennington(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+83.7-83.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+546.0-546.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15
Tecia Pennington
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach60.0"
Fights4