Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Zhang Weili won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 12, 2022·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupCarla Esparza: WrestlervsZhang Weili: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Carla Esparza wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Zhang Weili wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Zhang Weili has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Carla Esparza
Red Corner
VS
Zhang Weili
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'1"
Height
5'4"
160.02 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carla Esparza
oldest →latest
W
vs Michelle Waterson · May 20W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24Zhang Weili
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Jun 22W
vs Amanda Lemos · Aug 23W
vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 24W
vs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 25L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carla EsparzaMetricZhang Weili
2.19
Strikes / min
4.66
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
54%
Strike defense
53%
3.28
TDs / 15 min
1.96
47%
Takedown defense
63%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.68Δ 2.71 — meaningful gap+2.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carla EsparzaZhang Weili
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carla Esparza(10 fights)Zhang Weili(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+74.0-74.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15
Zhang Weili
StanceSwitch
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights9