Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Carli Judice won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 19, 2025·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Style matchupCarli Judice: Pressure fightervsNicolle Caliari: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Carli Judice wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Carli Judice wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carli Judice is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Nicolle Caliari has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Carli Judice has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Carli Judice (53.5%).
- Carli Judice has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Carli Judice
Red Corner
VS
Nicolle Caliari
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
27
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'3"
172.72 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carli JudiceW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Gabriella Fernandes · Jun 24W
KOvs Yuneisy Duben · Mar 25W
vs Juliana Miller · Feb 26Nicolle Caliari
oldest →latest
L
vs Ernesta Kareckaite · Jan 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carli JudiceMetricNicolle Caliari
9.32
Strikes / min
3.46
6.62
Strikes absorbed / min
7.01
57%
Strike defense
53%
0.52
TDs / 15 min
2.88
80%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.70Δ 6.25 — meaningful gap-3.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carli JudiceNicolle Caliari
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carli Judice(4 fights)Nicolle Caliari(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.1-16.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-63.063.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Carli Judice
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4
Nicolle Caliari
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights2