Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jake Hadley won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Carlos Candelario wins(61.9%)
Actual result: Jake Hadley wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Hadley has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Candelario
Red Corner
VS
Jake Hadley
Blue Corner
+225
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
34
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Candelario
oldest →latest
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · May 22Jake Hadley
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Mar 23L
vs Cody Durden · Aug 23L
vs Charles Johnson · May 24W
vs Caolan Loughran · Jul 24L
vs Cameron Smotherman · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos CandelarioMetricJake Hadley
3.97
Strikes / min
3.80
5.17
Strikes absorbed / min
4.16
44%
Strike defense
61%
2.28
TDs / 15 min
0.33
53%
Takedown defense
54%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos CandelarioJake Hadley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Candelario(2 fights)Jake Hadley(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Carlos Candelario
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2
Jake Hadley
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7