Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Oliveira won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, April 14, 2018·Glendale, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(68.6%)
Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Alex Oliveira has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Condit
Red Corner
VS
Alex Oliveira
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-175
(64%)
42
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Condit
oldest →latest
L
vs Neil Magny · Dec 17L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos ConditMetricAlex Oliveira
3.66
Strikes / min
2.99
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
55%
Strike defense
46%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
2.35
38%
Takedown defense
63%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos ConditAlex Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-69.369.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.7-1.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Carlos Condit
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Alex Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21