Welterweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Condit won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, January 16, 2021·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(50.9%)
Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Brown has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Condit
Red Corner
VS
Matt Brown
Blue Corner
-177
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
42
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Condit
oldest →latest
L
vs Neil Magny · Dec 17L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21Matt Brown
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Dec 19L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos ConditMetricMatt Brown
3.66
Strikes / min
3.76
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
55%
Strike defense
55%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
1.68
38%
Takedown defense
63%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.84
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos ConditMatt Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-35.235.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-140.0140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Carlos Condit
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25