Welterweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 29, 2018·Los Angeles, California, USA, USA
Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(58.1%)
Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Carlos Condit has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Michael Chiesa has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Carlos Condit
Red Corner
VS
Michael Chiesa
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
42
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Condit
oldest →latest
L
vs Neil Magny · Dec 17L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos ConditMetricMichael Chiesa
3.66
Strikes / min
2.02
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
1.73
55%
Strike defense
57%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
3.11
38%
Takedown defense
65%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Carlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-58.458.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.1-2.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Carlos Condit
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22